The US Presidential elections.

1.5.2008.

You can't ignore the current run-up to the '08 US Presidential elections. Everywhere you look you read, hear or see something about it. Being the most powerful nation on the planet also means that many are interested, because whatever happens in the next 6 months is going to affect the world in one way or another.

I want to make my comments now, to see whether some of my premises would be proven correct in November. Before that let me just say that certainly in America it's the right of the haves to become the political leader - if you don't have the dough, it's no show. Just see how much it cost to run this campaign. In fact many of the apparently qualified candidates had dropped out early simply because they ran out of money.

One of the good things is that the President is popularly chosen, not because he's his party's leader. Now, THAT would be something in this country, wouldn't it ? 

The other good thing is how whatever the candidates do and say, even if they happened many, many years ago, can affect their electibility. How awsome if this was to happen here in Malaysia. Now that's accountablity. A politician would shoot out of his mouth at his own peril. So now it's down to McCain for the Republicans      ( the elephant ), and Clinton or Obama for the Democrats ( the ass ).

Here's my prognosis. The Democrats would win if their nominee is Clinton. McCain means another 5 years of the same - the occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan, the economic strategy, the foreign policy, and that by a 71- year old. 71 is not THAT old by world leaders' standard, but it means less chance for big changes in the way of thinking because of hardened arteries and hard hearing. 

The Republicans would win for the 3rd consecutive term if Obama is the Democratic nominee. America is ready for a white female President, not for a black one. The big-state , blue collar,Chicano, Asian and mid-lower income support of Clinton shows this. The Chicano and Asian vote is reflective of a conservative tendency for the status quo amongst the newer immigrants. Once the nation-wide Presidential elections take place in November, the 10% black votes would be insufficient to carry a black candidate. 

Why Obama is making such a strong showing now is because many Democratic office bearers who hold sway in their constituencies hate the idea of another domineering Clinton in the White House. This is why the Kennedys, for instance, jumped onto the Obama bandwagon early. Obama also enjoys the support of the richer, better educated and younger crowd because these people are more open to the idea of trying something different. 

The media plays an important role in America. The major newspapers often take sides, and at the moment the lean is towards Obama, because Obama is news, while Clinton is old issue. But the media has been wrong before, as in this race, and as during the two senatorial elections that Clinton had won in New York, against the dire predictions of several influential newspapers. The economic achievements of the Bill Clinton Administration is noteworthy, and his political i.o.u's are many. So why is Bill not making a serious dent on the Obama movement ? Again, there is that element of political jealousy, perhaps of cutting to size the large impact of a successful presidency, now seemingly leading towards another spouse taking over where he left off. In spite of the patronage that Bill has bestowed on party bigwigs, maybe even because of it, some receipients have chosen to grab this opportunity to cast off a hated sense of indebtedness and grandoisely rationalised libertarian fancy for a perceived shining star in the Obama phenomenon.

So ,Charles Pinkus in Washington State, whom I used to know as a Peace Corps teacher in Kuala Pilah back in the 60's, prove me wrong.

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