A sad sight of Isa.

Sun 21 Oct 2018.

I'd written elsewhere about the results of the PD bye-election on the 13th.  I need to post it in this blog, to complete my write-up on the subject.

First of all, this was a sad sight of Isa. The longest serving MB lost his deposit in his first Parliamentary election in his home base as an independent. I'd said before this, maybe we'd see Isa come home to roost. Instead  Isa came home and got roasted.

Let's look at some numbers.

The turnout was 30% lower than GE 14 just 5 months ago. This was  an unnecessary and wasteful bye-election. Anwar wanted to get into Parliament. The winner of GE 14 ever so obligingly gave way. He must have a million reasons. 

Anwar received 14.4% less votes for PH, compared to GE14, but got translated to an additional  33% bigger majority. His total votes was 71.3 % of all votes cast, compared to PH's 59.1% in GE 14, or an increase of 20.1%.

Anwar's percentages increases were at the expense of MIC's significant 18,515 votes, or 30.2% of total votes cast in GE 14.

PAS, as it often does, maintained members' loyalty and surprised everyone by beating Isa in his home territory. PAS' 7,456 votes  were  bigger than Isa's by a massive 76.3% ! PAS in fact enlarged its vote this time by 862, or 13.1%.

Isa's votes of 4,230 were only 9.7% of all votes cast. His and the other 4 independents combined only total 5,017 votes, or 11.5% of the total.

In trying to make some sense of the unexpected debacle of Isa in his own backyard, I should pose some questions, because I was there from 3 to 5.30 p.m., past the closure time for the polls. After lunch that day, I took the old PD road through Mambau, and stopped at two schools in Lukut used as polling stations, and one college nearer to PD town, and drove along the coastal road right through to Sainy's house in Pasir Panjang, slowing down at 3 other stations, observing the crowd, or lack of it,  at these places.  The duty officers' comments   and my discussions with Sainy at his house, all pointed to one clear thing: the poor turnout.The figure mentioned was "not more than 40%" And this was at 4 p.m., one hour before closing time.

40% of the total register of 75,381 voters is 30,152. This covered the time lapse of 8 hours. This worked out to a flow of 3,769 per hour. The final turnout was 43,483. That meant 13,331 voters cast their votes in the last hour, at a flow rate that was more than 3 times the rate all day. I should have seen a sudden surge of people, and the vehicles that brought them.  I didn't. That's the question. 

Some conjecture is also offered in the racial behaviour of the voting.

PD is 43% Malays, 33% Chinese, and 24% Indians and other races. PAS secured 7,456 votes. Isa 4,230. I say these 11,686 were Malays, or 37% of this racial group. This figure of only one-third of the Malays bothering to participate had been tossed around right through the last few days of campaigning. At 58.2% full turnout, the Malay voters totalled 18,623. Subtracting the 11,686 above would give Anwar 6,937 Malay votes.

Anwar's total of 31,016 votes, with Malays at 6,937, meant another 24,079 votes to account for, or 55.4% of the total votes cast. Assuming the same percentage turnout for both Chinese and Indians, with the racial mix for PD, the breakup of votes for Anwar would be 13,941 Chinese and 10,139 Indians and others. This meant Anwar's 31,016  votes were made up of  45% Chinese, 32.7% Indians and others, and 22.4% Malays. 

To summarise, I could say that the pro-PH voice of GE 14, after 5 months, was still strong. This in spite of the expected early glitches in being new in  government.   Fielding old-horse Anwar in haste, and being the third member of the same family contesting, couldn't have been very exciting to the voters.The lingering PH effect, helped by Mahathir & Co's appearance, pushed aside Isa and UMNO's support to nothing, really. UMNO's boycot was strange.  At least Isa had the courage to enter the fray.

Isa is not quitting just yet, or so it's been quoted. I know him. There's some good qualities in him. But often other considerations interfere. If he's not giving up, I say "good for you". But it won't be easy. A sad sight.

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Aziz

Sat 13 Oct 2018.

On my mobile he's listed as "Jingkung". It's a word his wife used a lot at one time. I put it on him years ago, and openly called him by that name. Even if someone answered the call, and I asked for "jingkung", they all know whom I'm referring  to. 

His real name was Abdul Aziz Samah. 78-year old Aziz  died Friday morning, after being in a coma for more than 2 weeks. He was apparently cycling but somehow was brushed by a car. A group of people who knew him happened to be around and rushed to his aid. He was still conscious, and declined to be taken to hospital, but being heavy-set, they decided to call the ambulance. By the time they got him into the van, he lost consciousness, and they had to take him straight to hospital, where they put him on assisted breathing in the ICU. He was in that condition until he passed away at about 10 a.m. Friday morning.

We had gotten close through all the years since he got married to my cousin. When he was in JB and stayed in Larkin, I visited him. I would drive across the causeway still in my sarong in the morning to go to Woodlands to buy some tinned fruits and fresh fruits and simply drive back to Larkin. Those days the traffic was light, and the Immigration nominal.

When I was the ADUN for Senaling he helped at the office. He also helped vacate it when my term ended.

Whenever I needed things to be done in KP while I'm in Seremban, such as my gun licence matters, Aziz was my man.

Aziz is no more now, and a part of my life, too.  I read the Yasin as they lowered his remains into the "liang lahad". May Allah Forgive you, Jingkung.

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PD D-Day -1

Fri 12 Oct 2018.

Last night at close to mid-night I finally caught Isa Samad at his Operations Centre (his old house) in Bagan Pinang.  I'd been trying to meet him since the week before nomination day, but his hectic schedule kept our paths separate.

Friday would be the last day of campaigning. Saturday 13th., an ominous date, would be D-Day.

Anwar, for whatever reasons, had chosen to seek mandate from the PD folks. He's an outsider here, compared to Isa. That could be the deciding factor.

Isa's entry into fray seems so natural. UMNO (and Mat Hasan in particular) chickened out. After all the bombast, PAS finally sent an unknown. But that is PAS. They'll send anyone to the polls. And except for Kelantan and Terengganu, their traditional strongholds, all would fall by the roadside, usually scrounging dismal numbers and making you think "don't they plan properly?" The 4 independents were drawn by the smell of blood, like Saiful, Anwar's nemesis in Sodomy II. Or maybe the stink of sewage. I don't know.

I've not attended any of Isa's campaigns. I attended one of Anwar's on Wednesday, where Mat Sabu and Rais Yatim were the notable speakers. Last night Muhyiddin accompanied Anwar for prayers (it was Thursday night or "malam Jumaat", a holy night for supplications) at the Bagan Pinang mosque close to Isa's hq. I came close to the Mahathir visit at the "Waterfront", but bad weather, bad light and bad traffic turned me away to Isa's ops room instead. But I'd been collecting the oral and printed feedbacks on the current situation. And they point to a close race. The national "icon" vs. the "local boy". And Isa is playing the local boy image  to the fullest.

You'll remember  the first recorded response by Anwar to Isa's entry in the race; he was dismissive. "He has enough problems". Maybe for a moment Anwar forgot that Isa doesn't have a monopoly on personal problems. In fact Isa said to me last night, Anwar has not attacked him personally throughout the campaign so far, so he, too, hasn't personally attacked Anwar, but added (rubbing his side pocket) he has plenty of material if he chooses to. Since that first remark, Anwar must have realized that Isa is small, but not small fry in PD.  That's why Mahathir and Daim and other national figures have been pulled by Anwar (that's political influence) to come to PD. Some pro PH commentators have said that their presence had spiked Anwar's rating.

I see that Isa is sticking to local issues, while Anwar tries to impress with his connections, from the liberal youth to Mahathir and the Agong, and talks of master plans for PD worth millions. Anwar's crowd is boosted by "outside" supporters in their flashy suv's and  escorts' flashing lights. Isa's company is always local, and they go to all the nooks and corners of PD because they know where to go. Even on nomination day, Isa's smaller crowd was all local, whereas Anwar's was boosted by at least 200 Kuala Pilah supporters, because I recognized them. This "local" vs "national" campaign is the decider, I think.

Well, we don't have a long wait. By tomorrow evening we'll know if Isa has  come  home to roost.

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7-day suspension.

Sun 7 Oct 2018.

Yesterday I came to the club early for the fixed 4-ball, only to be told by the counter clerk that I'm suspended for a week, starting that very day. I said I've not been informed, by letter or 'phone.

I called the other 3 and told them. In their eagerness to not miss their game, 2 other golfers were contacted, separately. Now they have 1 extra. I don't know what happened after that. 

The club called me for a hearing about this member's complain against me on 7 September. He alleged that I punched him, and he fell, at the cleaning area. At the hearing this fellow  went berserk and said I must be stopped or I might kill him. He said I have a bad repuation at the club. He said he doesn't know me, and I'm no friend. He called me a "samseng" in front of the panel, and I pointed this out to the panel. He turned to me at one point and said "I can punch you". "Punch and see what happens" was my reply, looking straight at his face. We were seated together facing the panel.

I'd given my written reply to the show-cause letter the same day I received it by mail. I denied the punching. I said I was only joking when pulling the air hose. We know each other. We have  played together.  I've joked with him before. The air hose thing was nothing but  a joke.

I said at the hearing that only in cowboy movies you punch somebody in the face and that guy falls. This was because he  said he was punched once, and he fell. Even his glasses didn't fly off.

Jane came as the only witness that day. We never discussed the case before this appearance, it was all up to her. I was disappointed.  I heard her on the day of the incident calling out "he's only joking lah".  This time she didn't say this. Instead she was trying to sound motherly at the hearing, and said she tried to dissuade us from continuing whatever we were doing. I've been playing with her regularly for the past 24 years. She knows the type of person I am. The fact that my accuser is Chinese was a factor in her testimony, I feel.

The  7-day suspension surprised me. I thought they would bring it to the main committee first for a decision. Datuk Azhar said I should be informed first. They say I've 14 days to appeal. When the panel had the chance to find out what actually happened, they were busy reading out the clause on infringement, the chairman repeatedly saying that this is all unpleasant business. One member kept asking "who got to the air hose first ?", after I'd repeatedly said this guy had finished using it (at least this one Jane corroborated), but suddenly turned back for it, and I was already reaching for it, so we clashed. Otherwise the whole thing wouldn't have taken place.

Next time I'll really punch this idiot. Only I'll make sure it's outside the club. 

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