Bewildering numbers.

 27.11.2022

I'm writing this 9 days after GE15. Which was not due for 7 more months.

It took 3 PM's to dissolve Parliament. To get the 10th. PM. All in a period of 53 months.

The magic number  for the 15th Parliament is 112 out of 222.

We got to vote for 221 only, because Padang Serai lost one candidate already nominated.

9 states chose to wait 6 more months before  dissolving.  3 joined the GE with Parliament.

After GE14 no dominant Party emerged.

Then UMNO had 54, PKR 47, DAP 42, PAS 18, BERSATU and PBB 13 each, Amanah 11, Warisan 8, and the rest shared by 9 other Parties, plus 3 without any Party.

After GE15 still no dominant Party emerged. In spite of the boasts by UMNO and PKR. Both are much worse-off now then in 2018, despite the frenzy of Zahid and Rafizi.

Apparently PAS quietly garnered all the tahfiz/Islamic schools and the fresh 18-year-old first-time voters, and you know where the votes went.

PAS got 49 ( +31 or almost triple), DAP 40 ( -2 or almost 5% less), PKR 31 ( -16 or more than 33% less), UMNO 26 ( - 28 or almost 52% less), BERSATU 24 ( + 11 or almost 85% more), PBB 14 (+1), Amanah 8 ( - 3), Warisan 3 ( -5) and the rest shared by 10 other parties ( + 1 more Party), plus 2 without any Party.

Summoned by the King, PN showed 115 supporters, it was reported. Unfortunately PH listed 112, as was also reported. The total was 227, not 222. On checking, some names appeared on both lists ! Royal rejection was unavoidable.

GPS with 23 had earlier given its support to PN. It was reported.

25 UMNO (minus 1 Bagan Datok) became at first split, but hours later, as a group, wanted to remain in the Opposition.

Unlike with the PN group, the King met with the 30 BN Group, apparently with Zahid having a  1 to 1 first with  the King.

What actually transpired here, only God Knows. But by then GPS  had announced an about-turn, preferring instead PH.

By now the King had met the PN and PH groups, and separately the BN Group, and called the other 8 Rajas together. It took 5 days. Only DAP and PAS stood on the sidelines unwavering, unheard, with 89 seats in hand. That's 40 % of Parliament.

GE15 maybe the mother-of-GE's - Zahid said this. At least he is probably right on that one.

21 million voters were supposed to come out and vote. Apparently the total turnout was 70%. 6.3 million stayed away, including the Mrs.

Almost 1,000 candidates stood for election, giving the average of 4.5. A record. In fact 4 constituencies had 8 candidates, 1 had 9 and Batu had 10.

6 constituencies had each given the winner more than 100,000 votes. The highest was Damansara, with 142,875.

9 constituencies gave the winners more than a 30,000-majority each. The highest was Tanah Merah with 44,485. But an exact same number, 9, gave the winners each less than a 800-majority. The lowest was Lubok Antu with 100. Ku Li lost by 163 in Gua Musang, a seat he's held forever. Zahid scraped through with 348. But at least it was slightly more than the 226 Tawfik Tun Dr. Ismail got. I wonder if there were recounts.

Incidently, Anwar in winning Tambun only got 38 % of the votes, what with the giant flag and the helicopter rides.

Some candidates in 30 constituencies (13.5 % of Parliament) all recorded receiving total votes of less than 1,000 each. The lowest was an Independent  candidate in Kota Bharu with 91.

From Party point of view, Pejuang was worst-off, with all candidates losing their deposits, including Tun Mahathir who got 4,566 votes out of 47,480 cast, or 9.62 %. What's the message ?

To add to the confusion, on top of the 13 Parties contesting in the Peninsula, all of them also appearing in Sabah and Sarawak, Sabah has 7 other parties to itself, while  Sarawak has 5 Sarawakian ones, bringing the grand total to 25. 

26 if, as you surely must, you include the Independents.

Of the 3 State Elections, Perlis (15 seats) with PN 14, PH 1 (a slap in Zaid's face by Shahidan ), Perak (59 seats) with PN 26, PH 24, BN 9, and Pahang ( 42 seats) with PN 17, BN 16, and PH 8. For these, PN has the edge over PH.

They say the community voting turnout was 98% for the Chinese, 77%  the Indians, and only 62 %  the Malays. Is there a premonition?

As to where the Malay votes went, it's said that 54% went to PN, 33% went to BN, and 11% went to PH. I've shared these numbers, but some of my readers have criticised the accuracy.  Is there a secret?

It's reported that the 4 big groupings of PH, PN, BN and GPS, combined, secured 70% of the national registered voters, with the figure of 14,680,688. PH (82 seats) had 5,894,096 voters, PN (73 seats) had 4,667,229, BN (30 seats) 3,456,762, and GPS (23 seats) 662,601. But they contested different total constituencies. PH in 220, PN in 171, BN in 179 and GPS in only 31. The average per constituency votes for each group become 26,791 for PH, 27,293 for PN, 19,311 for BN, and 21,374 for GPS. These make the voting spread fairly realistic, reflective of the final total outcome.

PM 10 said the 1st order of business for Parliament would be to count the support. How many will he get ? 

He also famously promised petrol price would go down by half once he's PM. Yup, you pay half now. But it's for half the amount.   Is that an omen of the fate of other sky-high promises ?

Bewildering numbers !

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Hamdan Mohd. Derus 21.3.1944 - 24.11.2022.

 25.11.2022

It was a personal shock to receive the sad news of Hamdan's passing at about 2 pm, Thursday 24.11.2022. He had in fact died that morning, but I only got to my mobile phone on my return from meeting some friends. Soon after his passing Bok had called, but the phone was not with me.  Returning his missed called, his tragic news hit me hard. Hamdan was 78 years, 8 months and 3 days. May God Have Mercy on him, amin.

Cikgu Derus and his wife were good friends with my late parents, and they visited each other, staying just 2 km apart. We were in Bukit Temensu (The Hill with Temensu Trees). They were in Sawah Lebar (The Wide Padi field). I even remember one visit when my parents took me along. Both Cikgu Derus and wife were teachers. My father was also a teacher. I knew Cikgu Derus, a tall Malay, well. I met him many times. One time I went to the Malay teachers' club in KP town and borowed "Hikayat Munshi Abdullah" and "Pelayaran Munshi Abdullah" from its library from Cikgu Derus. He was in charge of that library. 

Hamdan went to FMC, PD a year before me. He was in fact only 8 months older, but must have enrolled in school 1 year earlier. I think he had 2 younger brothers who joined the college. One I know because we would meet at a few golf tournaments. He's a good golfer. His son in fact was a successful amateur golfer who later tried his hands at the professional level, but I've not heard of his golf since. Another brother went to study in New Zealand, got married to a New Zealander, and is still there. He came back for a short while, but returned to New Zealand. When he came back from his university holidays, he would walk around KP town barefooted. Dato' Mansor, who was the MB, criticised him. They were related.

Hamdan at first joined the University of Malaya, but later changed courses and studied in England. He was there a long time. That part of his life until he returned home is unknown to me. Once back here,  OPA activities in KL, and family events in NS made reconnection possible and we kept in touch right up to my last visit to Nyalas, when in fact I spoke to him on the phone. We used to meet for coffee & cakes at KL Central. In fact there's a pending lunch we promised each other, now unfullfilled. 

On college holidays Hamdan would cycle to Bukit Temensu, and we would meet and trade news. I knew when he came back he was staying at the INTAN quarters in KL. His wife worked there. Then he moved to PJ. I never visited him in either places, regretfully.

By the time the sad news reached me yesterday,  it was impossible for me to visit and pay my last respects.  I regret that very much. I'd called Hank, but he already knew. But this was also a sad week for me here in Seremban. All within the last 3 days, 3 sad deaths occurred around me. Two of my neighbours, on the same road, died of old age. My wife's sister-in-law also passed away, aged 82, in Kg. Durian Tiga Batang (The Three Durian Trees), a km away. She was Singaporean, from Telok Blangah (The Cooking Pot Bay).

It's a small temporal world.

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The Busy Week and GE15

 Sun 13.11.2022

It's been a Busy Week.

I'd promised Hank to help with a bit of his editing work on the 2nd edition of "I Remember", the FMC book. I'd even gone to his house for tuition: I don't know how to start !

I was also committed to our second trip to "Warong Dayang", Linggi.  Md. Sham, Awaluddin, Hashim and Mazni were supposed to join Hank and I this time, for the "ikan baung" lunch.

But there was a MUBARAK meeting at the Royal Chulan, Seremban. Then there were GE15 related events, including the Nomination Day, for which I was somehow involved, but that's another story.

Somehow, somewhere, I managed to participate in them all. For the Busy Week.

GE14 is gone. I commented on this immediately after the event, in 2018. The 60-month Parliament term has about 7 months to run, including the 60-day wait allowed, before the compulsory general election.  Today we have 7 days before the votes are cast for 222 Parliamentry seats in the country. 

The Peninsula has 166 Parliamentry seats, with Sabah / Sarawak 56. Sarawak, with 31(14%), has the biggest single share and may yet determine who forms the Federal Government. Some states have opted out of the GE15, to add to the pervading confusion.

UMNO is the culprit behind all this. They were the ones behind the wasteful Melaka and Johor state bye-elections recently. Their agitation is matched by the number of candidates nominated on 5.11.2022. We have almost 1,000 of them, giving an average of 4.5 candidates per seat, the highest in the country's record. And I thought we're all sick of these elections.

Race and religion are in the political fabric. In truth, everyone can exist in relative harmony, regardless of this. But not according to the wild talk at the height of a wild campaign. Fortunately, public behaviour is still civilised, when the emotions on the internet are downright barbaric.

UMNO had lost badly in GE14. They can't wait to rewrite the records. Why did Muhyiddin, whom they had unceremoniously kicked out, let them into the government again after only 22 months? 

True to character, UMNO reneged on all promises, written, verbal or whatever. Then again, if they can lie in the name of God, they can do anything !

60 years is a long time to enjoy political dominence and everything that entails. Losing all that is too hard. UMNO cannot wait to seek revenge, and this time the surprised victor (PH) handed  the chance on a platter, and they didn't even have to wait more than 22 months !

How's the campaigning so far ?

It's not been as fiery as expected, in real life here in Seremban. The nomination crowd at MBS was tame. PH with incumbent Anthony Loke had the biggest crowd. The Police said later that they had 250 people. PI wanted 1,000 the night before, but that was PAS talking. I counted 50. BN had about the same number. The number of police personnel present probably gave it a ratio of 1:1 between people and police. I think the police was disappointed with the turn of events.

The real exchange is on the internet. PKR and UMNO have been at it for some time. Non-participants, like the ex-minister from Perak, and the London bloke,  are free with their predictions.  The PKR narrative from 1999 has been "Anwar for PM". That looks as certain now as it has been since 1999.

UMNO is either very brave but stupid, or very brave but prophetic. Their leader has determined that action no. 1 upon winning is to "sack the Chief Justice." With one PM already in jail, and one future PM to join him soon, that wish is understandable.

UMNO's candidature had been surgically cut-up, and "take-it-or-leave-it" the order of the day.  So the guy in Perlis said "shove it" and now stands for PN, and many in Perlis say he will win it. The Rembau guy put his tail between his legs and dutifully hobbled to Sg. Buluh, comforted by his boss with "be thankful I let you even stand". Nonetheless, exRembau still wants to be PM.

PN picked PAS to contest Seremban. With about 51 % Malays, this PAS guy should take down DAP's Anthony Loke. But with 5 candidates, the Malay votes would be split, and Anthony gets his 2nd term. And 2 "ceramahs" I've attended tell me that PN's message of "communist Chinese, no LBGT, Muhyiddin's Covid 19 success" and the party-dominated audiences,  don't impress, and worse, reach no one. Party members shouting "Perikatan Nasional !" and "takbir!" seem very PAS-like. If PAS candidates win on the west coast, it'll be thanks to BERSATU.

"Merdeka Centre", like in GE14, gives its regular predictions on the state of affairs. That London smart aleck gives his usual 2-cent worths. The general view is everything is "50:50", whatever that means. To me it means they don't know. They got it all wrong GE14.

Back to the Linggi trip, Hank regretfully couldn't make it this time, although he was responsible for this 2nd trip. His elder sister was found lying on the floor that morning, and he had to take her to the hospital. Later I checked and found out that she was allowed to go home.

In spite of missing the junction to Mazni's house twice (my fault - but my excuse is I was in the 3rd row seat at the rear and couldn't see the junctions) we reached Warung Dayang in good time. Everybody enjoyed the "baung masak lada api" so much we had "tapaus". I even got one although I didn't order. Md.Sham did justice to his long trip. He not only cleaned up his baung, he also finished his "ikan sembilang". The baung was confirmed caught fresh from the Linggi river.

Meanwhile, I still haven't started on editing "I Remember". I shouldn't forget.

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