Sunday, October 21, 2018

A sad sight of Isa.

Sun 21 Oct 2018.



I'd written elsewhere about the results of the PD bye-election on the 13th.  I need to post it in this blog, to complete my write-up on the subject.

First of all, this was a sad sight of Isa. The longest serving MB lost his deposit in his first Parliamentary election in his home base as an independent. I'd said before this, maybe we'd see Isa come home to roost. Instead  Isa came home and got roasted.

Let's look at some numbers.

The turnout was 30% lower than GE 14 just 5 months ago. This was  an unnecessary and wasteful bye-election. Anwar wanted to get into Parliament. The winner of GE 14 ever so obligingly gave way. He must have a million reasons. 

Anwar received 14.4% less votes for PH, compared to GE14, but got translated to an additional  33% bigger majority. His total votes was 71.3 % of all votes cast, compared to PH's 59.1% in GE 14, or an increase of 20.1%.

Anwar's percentages increases were at the expense of MIC's significant 18,515 votes, or 30.2% of total votes cast in GE 14.

PAS, as it often does, maintained members' loyalty and surprised everyone by beating Isa in his home territory. PAS' 7,456 votes  were  bigger than Isa's by a massive 76.3% ! PAS in fact enlarged its vote this time by 862, or 13.1%.

Isa's votes of 4,230 were only 9.7% of all votes cast. His and the other 4 independents combined only total 5,017 votes, or 11.5% of the total.

In trying to make some sense of the unexpected debacle of Isa in his own backyard, I should pose some questions, because I was there from 3 to 5.30 p.m., past the closure time for the polls. After lunch that day, I took the old PD road through Mambau, and stopped at two schools in Lukut used as polling stations, and one college nearer to PD town, and drove along the coastal road right through to Sainy's house in Pasir Panjang, slowing down at 3 other stations, observing the crowd, or lack of it,  at these places.  The duty officers' comments   and my discussions with Sainy at his house, all pointed to one clear thing: the poor turnout.The figure mentioned was "not more than 40%" And this was at 4 p.m., one hour before closing time.

40% of the total register of 75,381 voters is 30,152. This covered the time lapse of 8 hours. This worked out to a flow of 3,769 per hour. The final turnout was 43,483. That meant 13,331 voters cast their votes in the last hour, at a flow rate that was more than 3 times the rate all day. I should have seen a sudden surge of people, and the vehicles that brought them.  I didn't. That's the question. 

Some conjecture is also offered in the racial behaviour of the voting.

PD is 43% Malays, 33% Chinese, and 24% Indians and other races. PAS secured 7,456 votes. Isa 4,230. I say these 11,686 were Malays, or 37% of this racial group. This figure of only one-third of the Malays bothering to participate had been tossed around right through the last few days of campaigning. At 58.2% full turnout, the Malay voters totalled 18,623. Subtracting the 11,686 above would give Anwar 6,937 Malay votes.

Anwar's total of 31,016 votes, with Malays at 6,937, meant another 24,079 votes to account for, or 55.4% of the total votes cast. Assuming the same percentage turnout for both Chinese and Indians, with the racial mix for PD, the breakup of votes for Anwar would be 13,941 Chinese and 10,139 Indians and others. This meant Anwar's 31,016  votes were made up of  45% Chinese, 32.7% Indians and others, and 22.4% Malays. 

To summarise, I could say that the pro-PH voice of GE 14, after 5 months, was still strong. This in spite of the expected early glitches in being new in  government.   Fielding old-horse Anwar in haste, and being the third member of the same family contesting, couldn't have been very exciting to the voters.The lingering PH effect, helped by Mahathir & Co's appearance, pushed aside Isa and UMNO's support to nothing, really. UMNO's boycot was strange.  At least Isa had the courage to enter the fray.

Isa is not quitting just yet, or so it's been quoted. I know him. There's some good qualities in him. But often other considerations interfere. If he's not giving up, I say "good for you". But it won't be easy. A sad sight.


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