Sun 27.2.2022.
The battle for Johor has officially started. Russian attack on Ukraine has already chalked up the first loss of lives for both aggressor and victim. But Johor and Ukraine are geographically and intrinsically worlds apart. The one aspect they share is the avoidability. The war could have been avoided. The cost of war ? A different class, one might say, and therefore another distinguishing element ?
Party to a very minor conference on the set-up for the Johor , I'm dismayed by the wastefullness of limited assets available for some of the parties involved. A one-seat advantage was considered ineffectual and caused the fall of the prior state government. I predict no great improvement on this after 12.3.2022. And then what, another call to the polls ?
Putin rightly feels the weight of Western bias against down-sized USSR. His reaction should have been obvious to all of Europe and North America listening to US voice. Ukraine was about to be added to the bloated NATO impingining on the isolated Russia. If Russia was militarily weaker, war would be out of the question. Being no. 2 in the world, you push me too far and you might get a bloody nose ! After all, Ukraine is next door. Washington is half-a-world away. If there's a big brother, a sneaky punch can be thrown and big brother can't protect in time.
There was a time when the major media could parlay accurate analysis on world politics. Not any more. They said Trump couldn't win. He did. They said UMNO couldn't lose. UMNO and the whole BN shebang soundly did. Now they say Putin cannot win; UMNO and BN would rear their heads once more. We have the whole of March to see if both media predictions bear fruit. Remember the USSR lasted 69 years (1922-1991), comparable to BN's hold of 1959-2018.
If it were random, unprovoked action by Russia, then the "free world's" angry reaction to Russia's attack is acceptible. In fact very close to the surface was the encroachment on Russia in all aspects of western domination. It felt the pressure bulding, and sought to produce relief. For Europe and USA to be blissfully ignorant of this is surprising.
UMNO is hard-pressed to fight back for at least a share of power, or risk political oblivion. Certain bye-elections caused it to feel confident that it can win back power if the people are to make their choice again. Notwithstanding the quality of its successes so far, UMNO feels the signs are good for fresh elections.
Really, Johor is a story worth unravelling. For, until GE 14, it had been the bastion of UMNO's domination in Malaysian politics. But in May 2018, it secured only 17 out of 56 State seats (30.3%). It has to win back almost double that figure for all its hue-and-cry to be worth anything. And right now the Malay votes are at its most divisive state.
Unlike Ukraine, Johor is not about life-and-death. It's politics. Covid 19 is life-and-death. The young voters are up to here with the politicking. Political parties will fall. Life goes on.
Ukraine is life-and-death, literally. Figuratively, it's also life-and-death for Russia as a sovereign power. Someone has to fall. There's no life after death. For the defenders of Ukraine. For the Russian State.
The Western media and those who have followed its tune are having a field day. Malaysians who are quick to join them should remember it was a Ukraine missile that shot the innocent MAS aircraft and killed all its passangers. BBC, CNN, Fox and even Aljazeira have filled up their news with snippets of refugees fleeing Ukraine and the tearful, angry accounts of the horror of armed Russian attack. They forget that this is war they need not fight, and they can demand their government not to fight.
UMNO is unashamedly using convicted Najib to garner sympathy for their cause. Najib, of course, is totally without shame, striding in Johor rounds, and even speaking in Parliament, behaving as if he is a noble being worthy of support. If education and intellect rule the day, Johorians should know what to do when casting their votes. For 60 years UMNO had ruled the state. For 50% of that time, UMNO and BN ruled with zero opposition. But in GE 14 they lost 50% of their seats and lost Johor to PH. Now they think it's ripe to wrest back that lost power. One very old but very experienced man has tottered to the state, calling for wise action. The opposition tries to belittle him, making him the butt of their jokes.
Ukraine and Johor are no jokes, even as they appear to be to detractors. Soon enough we'll see who laughs.
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