Sabah State election 26 Sept 2020

Mon 28 Sept 2020.

Last Saturday Sabah held its State elections, the second one in 2 years, 4 months and 17 days. They are supposed to occur once in 5 years. These things don't come cheap. This country doesn't have money to burn. But nowadays Malaysian politics have become cheap.

The former UMNO CM who lost in 2018 had gathered around him some Government supporters in the Assembly who turned coats, and threatened to upturn the 2-year-old Warisan-led government.  Shafie appeared to have pulled the rug from under their feet by dissolving the Assembly and forcing fresh elections. It appears now that Shafie would have closed the deal if not for the formation of new alliances - PN and GPS. As it is, Shafie only managed to get 32 out of the enlarged Assembly of 73 (previously 60), when the simple majority is 37. Out of the 13 additional seats, Warisan got only 2 more to add to its 2018 seats of 21. The balance of 11 went to BERSATU which had none before.  PBS added 1 more seat to its previous 6, while STAR did better by adding 4 to its previous 2. Unchanged were DAP with 6, and PKR 2 seats.  The losers were UPKO, with 1 now from 5, PBRS 0 from 1, and loudmouth UMNO, 14 from 17. MCA contested 4 seats, and SAPP 2, and have nothing to show for it. Warisan is the single largest party in the Assembly now, but the PN-BN coalition (UMNO, BERSATU, PBS, STAR) means it has 38, which is just a majority of 1 above the required 37. But it's 6 more than "Warisan Plus". The remaining 3 seats are held by Independents. Even if these 3 go to Warisan Plus, the 35 would be 3 less than PN-BN. Unless another jumping show happens. And it very well could. Again. 

The slim margin of victor over vanquished does not guarantee stability over the rule of "the land below the wind".  UMNO does not accept subservient treatment, or any suggestion of it being so treated. An UMNO man, controversial from the beginning, has hogged the centrepage of dealings, and obviously aims for CMship. Muhyiddin seems to have  different ideas.

Which brings us back to the Government's actual strength in Parliament. The PM can use all the tricks of the trade, but a resolution is inevitable. He had hoped for a resounding victory in Sabah. No expenses were spared, it being Sabah. The 11 BERSATU seats must have been pleasing. But the slim majority, and that via a coalition, too, means the vote of confidence resolution in Parliament is no nearer to being held. 

The fact that the proposed CM comes from BERSATU is obviously not welcome by UMNO. They had made that clear immediately after the election. The fact that the PM got his wishes here means UMNO is not strong enough by itself to do as it pleases.

The weak PM and his jumpy supporters must now make sure GE 15 happens no sooner than 2023 so they can enjoy the maximum possible 36 months of rule.

 For the next Sabah state elections, it's 2025. There's more breathing space.

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