So Anwar has chosen PD as his next platform to launch himself back into parliament at the ripe old age of 72. He has never left the Malaysian political scene even with two jail terms. This time he's finally apparently destined to be the next PM. Lest we all forget, the same old man who launched him into politics, speeded up his rise to the no.2 spot like a meteor, then stopped him short in his tracks, is again responsible for his unlikely comeback. I doubt that Anwar forgets.
On his own, through all four GE's 10 -13, even with his seemingly incredibly unlimited funds, his dream of being PM was clearly just that, a dream. PKR never broke 40 seats in the 222-seat parliament, a mere 13% strength, and for all intents and purposes, it would never improve, despite Rafizi's best efforts. Only PKR's more youthful stalwarts believe in its "reformasi" battle-cry. Then came the return of the old man.
Students of Malaysian politics would forever debate the rationale of an unnecessary bye-election. Let's not talk of the waste of money, time and effort, even if that's true. Just think for a minute the selfish motive and the abuse of the system. It's for one man running out of time to take the centre spot he claims is his God-given right. Is he scared he might miss his chance, like his miss in 1996?
The stunning fall of UMNO, and with it the BN government on 9 May, has caught Malaysians and the rest of the watching world by surprise. The victims were so surprised that the chief victim didn't even have an escape plan. If he had even the faintest doubt of winning the election, he would have packed his bags and booked his flight before the night the world came down on his ears, and within the hour he'd be in Jakarta, or wherever it was the pilot might have taken him. Not 24 hours after defeat, and by then even the unplanned crowd at Subang airport was waiting, because they smelled chicken.
The PH victory was manna from heaven for PKR, more so for Anwar, because it allowed a "pardon" by a mercurial monarch given so fast that heads were turned by the whirlwind of events. The discarded rigmarole of the pardon proper meant that Anwar was intantaneously eligible to contest. But the facts of his case are unchanged, and the truth of the matter remains unvarified.
Another fact not lost to the public is that a first-time parliamentarian hardly 6 months into his term has been made way for Anwar who already has a wife and daughter in Parliament. The 6-month MP must have a million reasons to do what he did.
The choice of PD, too, is cause for debate. Permatang Pauh would have been a natural and tested choice. Is there a trump card in PD?
The natural candidate from UMNO is Mat Hasan, the ex MB of NS. As Deputy President of UMNO he's the right person to fight Anwar, the leader of PKR, UMNO's political enemy. Mat Hasan has nothing to lose. Anwar is a worthy opponent. Mat Hasan's stature in UMNO will shoot up, win or lose. Any other candidate, including the much loved Isa Samad, would lose. The only problem is, Mat Hasan is not keen.
Can Mat Hasan win?
Is Anwar undefeatable ? is my question to that question.
This is not Permatang Pauh. Despite the 3-5 parliamentry loss, NS is still a strong UMNO state. UMNO Kuala Pilah lost Parliament by only 200 votes. And that because Hassan Malek at 72 is already too old and politically too weak. Rembau, Jelebu and Jempol are still UMNO-led.
The UMNO Deputy President has no known skeletons in his cabinet. Anwar has too many.
Like GE 14, Anwar must get Mahathir to campaign in PD. In spite of Rafizi's belittling of the old man's contribution, his presence could make the vital difference. But the old man has already said "I don't campaign in bye-elections". Get Rafizi to shut up, and the old man might still come to PD.
Get Isa Samad to campaign aggresively. Work the Chinese and Indians. Don't turn off Mahathir's supporters. Get the ex-forces groups' support. All these might produce 40% of the votes, enough to get a simple majority.
As I said, if it's anyone but Mat Hasan, UMNO might as well save its money and throw in the towel. On PD's beach!
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