Bok had arranged for this morning's "discussion". He reminded me on his sms; I don't usually forget these things. In fact I asked Maulud and Yunus to join in. Maulud came, but Yunus was already in KP. Masyun came at the agreed time, and Bok was last to come, but on time as well.
I had printed the electoral returns of GE 13 and gave Masyun and Bok a copy each. When I came home I found out an error on PRS(Sarawak) Parliamentary return - it should read 59,540 votes for 6 seats, instead of 74,959 votes. I'll tell them the next time I see or call them.
There are several points that were touched on that can elaborated here, but for now I'd just talk about the votes that Bersatu can reach out to.
The Election Commission reported that 11,257,147 votes were cast on the 5th. of May, 2013 General Elections, the 13th held since Independence. This was 84.84% of the total registered voters of 13,268,002, which is exceptionally high for a political election anywhere in the world.
What is interesting is that the Commission says that 17,883,697 out of the total population of 29,628,392 are eligible to register as voters. Which means there are another 4,615,695 persons who are unregistered as of this 2013 report. This is significant if you look at the votes that the no.1 party, UMNO, got - 3,252,484. It's almost 42% bigger ! This is the number one area Bersatu should tap into.
Independent candidates obtained 86,935 votes. or 0.8 % of the total cast.This is a useful amount of support to be attracted, and should merit careful scrutiny.
Small parties like STAR(Sabah) with 45,386 votes,BERJASA with 31,835 (in Parliament Seremban it obtained more than 8,000 votes with hardly any campaigning), SWP(Sarawak) with 15,630 votes, and SAPP(Sabah) with 10,099 votes should at least be sought out to get their supporters' votes. Their total is 102,950 or almost 10% of the total votes.
Next Bersatu should look at each state, both the Parliamentary and the State seats.
Perlis seems pretty solid for UMNO, but the earlier Bersatu road show there received a good response. It has 100% of the Parliamentry seats, and 80% of the State seats.
Kedah is a good target because the BN just managed to wrest it back from PAS the last time around. UMNO seems stronger at Parliamentry level, with almost 67%, but it only won 52% of the State seats.
The UMNO's 3 Parliamentry and 10 State seats in Pulau Pinang should be worth fighting for, seeing as how DAP is very strong here.
Perak has been a weak UMNO hold. Bersatu should put a strong front here, especially where Zahid and Nazri stand. Their not-so-clever bombast in recent weeks should inspire proBersatu people to do that extra bit and put salt in UMNO's possible wounds. The former 2nd Finance Minister could be roped in with proper handling. Perak has less than 42% of the Parliamentry seats, and slightly more than 50% of the State seats. Remember the Istana political drama with the late Sultan ?
Selangor is of course UMNO's grave yard. It has only 4 out of the 22 Parliamentry seats, and 12 of the 56 State seats. Taking out more from it's meagre hold seems like stealing from a child. But then again, you might as well put it out of its misery.
Wilayah Persekutuan's 3 areas of KL, Putrajaya and Labuan have been nightmarish for UMNO. Luckily for them they retained Putrajaya, the seat of the government, so to speak. Out of 13, UMNO hangs on to only 4. Putrajaya and KL look good for the taking next time around.
I remember NS not so long ago having 0 opposition. Now 3 out of the 8 Parliamentry seats and 15 out of the 36 State seats are not in UMNO's hands. In 4 State seats UMNO's majority in the last GE was less than 200, the lowest being 86 in Ampangan, where I live. Don't forget Parliament Jempol with its many Felda schemes where the long-serving ex MB and incumbent Chairman of Felda faced Aishah, the singer and novice PAS candidate who hails from the area. I remember the ex MB making fun of Aishah by referring to one of her songs when campaigning for the Wanita UMNO candidate for Sikamat. UMNO lost Sikamat , and Jempol nearly did,too. Aishah the novice got 48% of the votes !
Melaka has only 50% Parliamentry UMNO seats, and a slightly better 60% State seats. The last Chief Minister lost at Parliament last time, and the present one can lose wherever he stands next if he continues talking like a schoolboy instead of an engineer.
Nobody could forsee what happened in Johore, a former "Blue State". This is where UMNO was born 6 decades ago, and the grandson of its founder is still trying very hard to help his first cousin, the PM, go through the current mess. He shouldn't refer to his late grandfather too much. The late old man and his late son, the 3rd. PM, both died outside UMNO. As the Minister of Defence, he should do something about the rumblings in the ranks of Armed Forces. The noise from the army pensioners is also getting louder. Johore UMNO has less than 58% of the Parliamentry seats and 57% of the State seats, a far, far cry from its position as the BN stronghold in the recent past.
Pahang is Najib-land. UMNO has 50% of the Parliamentry seats, and almost 67% of the State seats. But remember, Najib won Pekan by less than 300 votes in one of the last GE's. And the mishandling of Felda by the current Chairman has neither the love of ex Felda staff, nor the support of large sections of the settlers who are suffering the loss of income because of tumbling commodity prices.
Terengganu has been in the news recently, for the wrong reasons. Of course there's the exMB loudmouthing about 1MDB and jumping the UMNO ship. Then the Sultan stripped the current MB of all his honourary titles, but Najib managed to stop the Sultan from asking for the sack. Then there was the little storm about the Terengganu-born bronze-medal Olympian who took a swipe at the MB about not even responding to his written request for assistance in his chosen sport. Terengganu was under PAS for sometime, and the State government is held by UMNO with the grand majority of 2 seats. If the ex MB and 2 friends abondon ship, UMNO's government would sink into the South China Sea.
PAS-held Kelantan doesn't appear to be about to lose its master in the forseeable future. Anwar Musa and his talk of UMNO recapturing Selangor should redirect his bragging toward his home state and see what he can or cannot do there. It's highly probable that he cannot.
Sabah and Sarawak are now the "security deposit" for Najib and UMNO. Sarawak may be a safer bet. But there's no UMNO there, so Najib better maintain his close link with the newly installed Strong Man of Sarawak. Sabah is an unknown. After Shafie Afdal, with frequent party changers in Sabah over the years right from USNO days, anything can happen. Sabah provides the only non-Muslim UMNO members. Zahid and Hishamuddin used to refer to Shafie as the Lanun. They may regret that now.
I'm talking about numbers here. Whoever gets them, wins.
Politics isn't that simple, of course. But numbers count.
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