The good news is there could be a 14th GE after all. Najib could very well avoid having one if he fears losing. He can't do it constitutionally, but that hasn't stopped him before. The only salvaging possibility is that there are enough strong-willed and right-minded officers in the Police and the Armed Forces to stop him from flouting the Constitution. The Police doesn't look a likely source of help right now, but the Army appears steady. Their respective veteran's associations seem a possible recourse.
So what choice do we have for the next government?
72-year-old UMNO could tout it's longevity. It has been dominant in all the 13 GE's. It has been in power for the last 58 years. UMNO has been the ruling party since independence, and the good and bad have been brought only by them, intentionally or otherwise.
In real terms, though, half a century isn't that long. It's only half of a life time. All worldly political parties have suffered changes, and mostly for the worse. The hardy Communist party, born only a few years before UMNO, would today be unrecognizable to Marx, Lenin and Mao Tze Tung if they were still around. England's weak Conservative no longer hogs centre stage with Labour. US's White House is supposed to be Republican, but the occupant neither sounds nor looks Republican, much less Democratic. India's Modi, having removed the erstwhile Congress, is espousing Hinduism and embracing Zionism, probably turning the Ghandis' (not related, of course) in their graves. And the list goes on.
Looking at Islamic history, the 4 Rightly Guided Caliphs ruled for 29 short years. Three of the Caliphs were murdered. The succeeding Ummayiad dynasty lasted 89 years. The Abbassids wrested power and lasted longer - 580 years. Seljuk Turks ended Abbassid power but retained their titular rule until 1258 when the Mongols sacked Bagdad, their capital, and ended the Abbassid caliphate. Mongol Khannate converted to Islam within the next 100 years. Delhi became the most important Islamic capital in the East. The Delhi Sultanate, and later the Mughal ( an adaptation of the word "Mongol") Empire (1526-1857) helped spread Islam to South East Asia. Meanwhile the Seljuk Turks who conquered Abbassid lands converted to Islam and became de facto Caliphs. The 13th. century saw the rise of the Uthmaniyah Empire. In 1453 Uthmaniyah Muhammad II captured Constantinople, and that caliphate lasted until 1924. The "Ottomans" (the Westerners are forever bastardizing original names) lasted 600 years. Now, that's long. The Islamic faith is as strong as ever. But so-called "Islamic" governments all over the world have not fared as well.
Age is not sacrosanct. Presumably the less of it, the less sacrosanct. Certainly Najib's people consider Mahathir's age not sacrosanct at all. The same could be said of UMNO.
The discerning mind should look for guidance when facing choice.
The next GE is about choosing who, and which political party leads the country. The ballot box has to assess pertinent points. Let's look at them.
It's about race.
A 2010 census says that out of a population of 29.63 million, Malays & Bumiputras make up 60.3%, Chinese 24.6% and Indians 7.1%, spread unevenly over 13 states and 3 Federal Territories, with a distinct rural-urban distribution, and with pronounced income-distribution differences strongly connected to racial and geographical factors. Religion, a life-value strongly held, closely corresponds to the race type. This is a field ripe for all kinds of political "dirty tricks". 61.1% of the population are of voting age. Race & religion could play a heavy hand.
It's about political parties.
The last GE probably cast the die on the Chinese and Indian votes. The 38 Parliamentry seats that went to DAP could become 44 for the Peninsula alone. An unchanged 6 from Sabah/Sarawak would give the party a total of 50 seats, or 22.5% of Parliament.
PAS's 21 could be reduced because of the PAN split, and the negative reaction to its UMNO tie-up. A generous guess is it keeps 17 seats. That's just 7.7% of Parliament.
Sabah's habit of changing governments is endemic. The 14 UMNO seats could see at least a 50-50 split between UMNO and BERSATU. That's if "zinc and water tanks" politics continue to be played this time around. The 8 remaining Parliamentry seats could be very local-orientated and stay with de facto BN. So BN keeps 15 seats, which is 60% of Sabah's total Parliamentry contribution.
Sarawak has lately been loudly sounding "separatist", helped by acrimony and a childish cabinet quarrel about tourism. Having zero UMNO presence means none of the UMNO spin there. But their quarrel is inter-federation. Their 25 Parliamentry seats could be up for grabs to whoever wins Parliament next time. That's a nice 11% of Parliament.
It's about the" gran' ol' party" - UMNO.
Once upon a time, it was the gentleman UMNO, of Malay school teachers, urban Malay government servants, and Malay rural folks who were happy with their modest lot, because they knew no better. The omnipresent UMNO displays and repetitive UMNO sounds meant that they went to sleep at night, and got up in the morning, with UMNO's sight & sound. Little personal difficulties and daily personal hardship were never related to what the government was, or wasn't doing. UMNO had won Independence. The Malays are rulers in the "Malay Land". The head-of-Islam rulers are Malays. We should be ever so grateful. And this rosy-painted sentiment had culminated with the resounding 90.5% Parliamentry win in 2004, UMNO's best performance.
But that was then.
Since 2013 a few things happened.
The print and tv-radio newsmedia has been completely overwhelmed by electronic social media. Everybody has instant access to news, true or fake. The younger, better educated population is able to spread the word to their older, less educated kith & kin, novel ideas clashing with old beliefs.
Rumour-mongering is fun. Tedious letter-writing and laborious 'phone calls give way to total control at the fingertips.
Then the 1MDB fiasco exploded.
And Najib & co. went into war mode.
1MDB requires a whole protocol to expound. Suffice it here is to say the zillions going around only flabbergast everyone and contaminate everything - UMNO, the government, and the very concept of decency itself.
In a relatively short 12 years UMNO has managed to convert its most handsome Parliamentry victory into a stinking mess. The no. 2 man in the country and the the no.1 man in Kedah were discarded like garbage, all for asking questions on 1MDB. The deafening silence of the UMNO rank-and-file has never been seen before. The party is now not even a pale shadow of its historic past. The keris in its sheath is useless. It's obvious the party is now full of spineless sychophants and strangely subdued lackeys. Well fed, obviously.
In the government, good people are summarily removed, and strange appointees replaced familiar faces. All semblence of good governance is nonchalantly discarded. Audit & other Parliamentry reports are covered up. Hard questions are ignored. Whistle-blowers are arrested. Wrong-doings are denied. And most of all, our intelligence is absolutely insulted by the sheer stupidity of the yarn offered as they try to deflect, deviate from, and deny the public outcry.
GST was supposed to replace sales tax, and "3.8" Mat Maslan on live tv said "GST will reduce prices" with a straight face.
The weak ringgit means imports cost more. The mounting national debt means all costs would be eventually more. And the government's guarantee of 1MDB's loans would end up on top of all these costs.
So out of the 74 Parliamentry seats UMNO secured from the Peninsula states, how many would remain ? Remember, 51 seats are in Felda areas where Isa made such a mess in 4 "shorty" years that Najib had to remove him abruptly. Let's say 50% is lost. That leaves 37 seats. With 7 from Sabah, UMNO would have 44. That's less than 20% of Parliament.
The rakyat deserves a better government. A new one looks highly likely.
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