PAS is probably thinking it can throw its weight around, with GE14 around the corner, and with the poor UMNO/BN pact cornered.
The numbers, however, are less than impressive.
PAS has 21 seats in the 222-seat parliament. That's less than 10%.
It has 82 seats in the 576-seat State Assemblies. That's slightly over 14%. And 56% of these seats are in 2 states - Kelantan & Terengganu, which two states together make up about 15% of all the 13 states in the Federation. That's not exactly having a killer punch.
And this is before the split into PAS & PAN.
If UMNO in the Peninsula retains the 74 seats in Parliament, and takes a handsome 50% chunk of the 14 seats in Sabah, it will have 81 seats in Parliament come GE 14. Give PAS 80% of the 21 seats because of the PAN break-up, i.e. 17 seats, and UMNO and its new-found ally would have a grand total of 98 seats. That's still 14 short of a simple majority in Parliament.
Sarawak's 25 Parliamentry seats in BN can be counted on to give the required majority, of course. But after foul-mouth Nazri and other constitutional issues being recently dug out in that state, can the 25 seats be considered safe?
But can BERSATU be discounted in view of the Mahathir onslought and the Isa Samad Felda debacale in the 51 Felda-dominated seats in Parliament ? How many of the 74 Peninsula seats and 14 Sabah seats counted above would actually remain in UMNO's hands? If only 50% is lost to BERSATU in the Peninsula, 50% in Sabah (where party hopping happens all the time) all the figures assumed above would give UMNO/BN 89 seats, or only 40% of Parliament.
What about MCA-MIC-Gerakan ? you say. I say the 12 seats accounted in GE13 for can be discounted. DAP would mop up the Chinese and Indian votes.
The arrogance is misplaced.
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