We continue to debate on the date for the imminent GE 13, and the chances for BN to retain power. In fact last week right before our foursome teed off at S.I.G.C. the argument got so heated Guzal challanged me to a rm 500 wager. He picked the opposition.
Many are saying the 19 UMNO seats in NS should ensure that the present administration continues, with 36 seats in the State Assembly. Others have said to me that Perak is 50-50, as is Selangor. Kelantan and Pulau Pinang would be difficult, but Johore, Pahang, Melaka, and Terengganu should be retained by BN. Kedah might be recaptured. Sabah and Sarawak would be interesting, especially Sabah with the current armed insurgency crisis.
My take is that the under-40's would be difficult to second-guess. I told Chan this morning, before this, wearing black for the Chinese was for "mourning" and frowned upon for daily attire. Today the Chinese youth purposely wear it for fashion. Who knows how the young votes would go.
The key is the number of seats each political party would contest. BN would obviously field all 222 seats in Parliament and every seat in the State Assemblies. The opposition has to contest in at least 120 seats in Parliament to have any hope of forming the government.
PAS has always been enjoying its core of loyal supporters, and not much more. A few tested seats would remain with it, but forming the Federal government is a distant dream. Kelantan is a different kettle of fish. Many of the Kelantanese working in other states remain voters in their own state, and they take the trouble to return to vote. The one thing they want to make sure is to retain a "Malay" government in an "Islamic" state, even if Kelantan suffers.
PKR is Anwar - without him it has no cause. Many supporters come from the ranks of disappointed UMNO people, although we also have disappointed MCA/MIC runaways. The question is, is Anwar a credible leader ? For right-thinking Malaysians, the question that has to be asked is about moral fibre and political opportunism. Certainly political leaders have changed positions before. Maybe they become wiser. But there is a process to it. They don't change completely overnight, from the no. 2 position of UMNO spewing anti-DAP anti-PAS insults, to an anti-UMNO hate monger. Sure, politics have strange bed-fellows, but I would be extra wary sleeping with Anwar ! And pardon the pun, I'd watch my backside !
The federal and state legislatures run out of time pretty soon. We'll see if I win rm 500 from Guzal. I promised half to Muhsin who witnessed the debate.
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