I'd sms'd Tiong Meng at the end of the 3rd. round of the Arnold Palmer Tournament and suggested that Tiger could be in contention if he made 6 birdies and no bogeys for a -13 come Sunday's final round. He made 6 birdies, but had 3 bogies for a -10, for 5th. place, 8 strokes behind the final winner, who started with -10 and had a -8 on the last day, for -18.
But this was only his fifth outing for 2018, 5 years after his last win. 2016 & 2017 he was out with back surgery. For the 5 competitions this year, Tiger has a mixed-bag of one missed-cut, 9th., 2nd. and at Arnold's a 5th. place finish. Some US sports commentators say that his come-back from injury is too fast. Greg Norman, naturally, said Tiger is too old to win a Major again.
So what are his chances for the Masters at Augusta this April, the first of the 4 Majors he needs to draw level with Nicklaus' record ?
He used to hold the no. 1 spot for a total 683 weeks. (Greg Norman is second with less than half as many weeks.) Now his WGR is in the hundreds. His 14 Majors is second best to Nicklaus' 18. His 79 PGA titles is second best to Sam Snead's 82. His last win was 4 years ago, making it a total of 5 winless years if you add 2010. His last Major win was the US Open in 2008, a long, long time ago. Doesn't sound great ?
But 14 Majors over a span of 20 years as a pro works out to 1.42 years between them. His record at Augusta is nothing to be ashamed of: in 18 years between 1997 - 2015, he had 4 wins and 9 top 10, making it 13/18, or 72.2% of the time.
His first win at the Masters in 1997 at age 21 was his 3rd. professional win, and his first Major, in his 2nd year as a pro.
He has won the other 3 Majors a total of 10 times. In fact he has a "Tiger Slam" - holding all 4 Major trophies between 2000 -2001, the only one to do so.
He's won the 10 million-dollar FedEx Cup twice, the only one to have done it.
Before turning professional and quitting college in his second year, or a sophomore as the Americans call it, Tiger had won the US Junior and the US Amateur 3 consecutive times each from age 15, the only person who has done so.
Until the end of 2017, at age 41, Tiger has won 111 tournament in 26 years. This comprises 6 amateurs, 14 Majors, 65 other PGA's, and 26 international titles, which works out to 4.27 wins per year.
The last Major Jack won was at age 46. Tiger is 41.
This is a game. Forget about all the accolades which all come after. You have to have game. At Arnold's, Tiger had 20 birdies. That alone, without any bogies, would have beaten the winner's score of -18. But he had 8 bogies and a double-bogey. His drive went OB on the 16th. hole on the last day. He had the ball stuck unplayable to the side of the bunker. And he missed a handful of makeable birdies. Others were dunking the ball into the hole from all over the place, birdieing from bunkers and eagling from the fairway. You can join all the lucky strikes and all Tiger's bad bounces, and you see chance tipping the scale against pure talent.
So, to answer my own question about his chances at the Masters in 3 weeks time, I'd say pretty darn good!
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