Movement Control Extension no. 3.

Friday April 24, 2020.

Today is Friday, the first day  of Ramadan, Year 1441 of the Hijriah. Today was also supposed to be the first of the last 5 days of the second extension of the MCO, or PKP, or SAH (stay at home lah !) order. As expected, yesterday the PM announced another 2-week extension of the Order to 12th. May.  If no further extensions are made, we would have been locked down for 55 days.

Singapore has announced an extension until the end of May. Not surprising because of the turn of events, mostly coming from the hostels housing the immigrant workers. What I said earlier about the island's seeming efficacy in dealing with the pandemic was said a bit too soon, it seems.

I looked at the WHO ranking and  am surprised that Malaysia is in a better position than Singapore, not that this is a frivolous contest. This is a deeply grave and deadly situation. But looking down the list, I'm also puzzled at the ratios given to our neighbours, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Brunei. China and India both have almost equal mammoth populations of 1.4 billions each, and they also show eye-brow- raising figures. The US, of course, has taken the world lead. This is one lead they're probably not proud of. And watching on tv the governors doing their own things against the background of the White House pandemonium, putting insular politics above medical science, I cannot but wonder in bafflement how the world can put its future in these clowns' hands. The virus may be biding  its time, fermanting, fermenting and just waiting for the right time to burst out and ravage all in its path. 

Let's look at the current figures:

Rank/Country  Population   Cases    Deaths      Per million pop

                                                                          Cases  Death   Test

1.     USA          331 m.      879,430    49,769   2,657   150    14,173

9.     China          1.4 b.        82,798      4,632        68      3       n.a.

16.   India           1.4 b          23,039         721        17     0.5      363

27. Singapore     5.8 m.        11,178          12      1,911     2    16,203

36. Indonesia      274 m.        7,775         647         28      2        219

42. Philippines   109 m.         6,981         462         64      4        660

44. Malaysia        32m           5,603           95       173      3      3,627

57. Thailand        70 m.         2,839           50         41    0.7     2,043

122. Vietnam       97 m.           268          n.a.           3     n.a.    2,119

133. Brunei      437,000           138            1         315      2     20,413

136. Cambodia   16.7 m.         122          n.a.           2     n.a.       345

179. Laos              7.3 m.          19           n.a.           3     n.a.       201

If these figures are true, the inference is staggering.

For one, China and India, with 2.8 billion people, must be visited just to be believed. And you're familiar with those photos of the slums and the sprawling cities.

For another, that Brunei, Singapore and the US can record those large numbers of tests, while China offers zero is beyond belief.

The 3,627 tests in Malaysia seem acceptible, but are they enough ? I see  Malaysians flouting the MCO nonchalantly with my own eyes, and I shudder to think of what else go on undetected, and therefore unaccounted for. And all the while the question remains, are we doing the right tests ?

When the first news came in January, a lot of countries didn't give it enough importance, I don't think.  Certainly Trump in USA didn't, and to this day, I might add. But just look at the figures.  In my last blog just a week ago I said there were then 1 million cases, with 95,000 deaths. Today the figures are more than 2.7 million cases, with more than 190,000 deaths.  All records on world epidemics are on threat now.

What can we do now ? There's no vaccine. There are not enough "frontliners" and testing and quarantine centres. People are getting desparate because of loss of income. Control on humans against  spread of disease is unenforcible, just human nature. Politics take over reason. And whatever is reported may just be the tip of the iceberg. Will the world simply sink like the Titanic ?

With Ramadan upon us, it's the right time to lift our palms to the Maker in supplication, Amin.

        

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Extended stay-at-home.

Fri 10 Apr 2020.

What I predicted (that wasn't a stroke of genius !) about the extension of the lockdown had this afternoon been announced by the PM. The medical experts have been urging it. I've gone around Ampangan (a Red Zone, by the way) and I say it's the right move.

We're trying to stop the spread of the virus, and stopping the movement of people so that they don't spread it or get caught by it seems common sense. But you know what they say, common sense is not so common.

The past modern-time world plagues that hit us this millenium had been overcome with world leadership and the joint efforts of nations. This time we lack both world leadership and joint efforts. 

Rich, powerful nations in America, Europe and Asia are not offering the world leadership they should have, but obviously don't. The WHO flails statistics but sends no physical presence to the hit zones. It's everyone for himself. 

I glance over the figures being quoted:

The world population is 7.78 billion.

The infected is now 1.6 million.

The dead are 96,373.

The biggest number infected is USA , with 468,895 cases and 16,697 deaths and a population of 330 million. Trump has been playing around with meaningless words and blaming everyone while Americans are actually dying by the thousands !But then China only reports 81,907 cases and 3,336 deaths with the world's biggest population of 1.4 billion !

Then I look at the ratios:

Country  Total cases Total death  Cases/mil Death/mil Test/mil

USA          468,895        16,697         1,417        50           7,181

China           81,907          3,336             57          2             n.a.

Malaysia       4,228               67             131         2           2,153

Philipines      4,195             221              38          2              224

Indonesia       3,512             306              13          1               65

Thailand         2,473              33               35         0.5         1,030

Singapore       1,910               6              326         1            11,110

Malaysia's tests are not as good as Singapore and the USA. But they're much better than Indonesia, the Philipines and Thailand combined ! China offers nothing ! Indonesia has 272 million people, Philipines 109 million, Thailand 70 million, Malaysia 32 million and tiny Singapore has 5.8 million.

What we have done so far, seems creditable, though not seemingly enough. The extended lockdown must be made to work, because that's the only sure defence that we have. Let's not hide behind 

these statistics. We don't want to end up as one, just a statistic !

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Is the "Lockdown" the best solution for Covid 19 ?

Fri 3 April 2020.

Today we're into the third week of the National Lockdown. No accurate figures have been offered to indicate if it has been effective so far. Parts of China and the whole of Singapore claim to have positive progress, but the methodology has been different. There's growing doubt that China is offering honest reporting. The Singapore island had been among the first implementers of this lockdown and by the nature of its geography may have certain advantages.

Now experts have come out to say that at least a 6-week shutdown is needed to ensure no spread of the virus for the locality. 

Dealing with the time extension, I'd say take that extra time and be safe rather than sorry.

But the key is effective shutdown. In Ampangan, that's not happening. Worse, I don't see any enforcement. Enforcement is the key. No wonder Ampangan right now is under the "Red" zone here.

Today is also a "milestone" of sorts - the 1 millionth victim counted worldwide. And the US has gone to the front in total numbers. 

To follow the CNN, this Trump is a candidate for disaster for the Americans. He's playing with words, playing politics and putting the economy as his priority. This is human life, and that takes precedence over everything else ! The 350 million Americans are putting their lives in the hands of this guy that they had put in office 4 years ago, and the signs are bad. They only have themselves to blame, and maybe they deserve it, poor Yankees !

And what's this joke about our Women's Ministry? And the world media is jumping on us ? It takes stupidity to attract attention, I guess. Do all the good you want, and nobody gives a damn. Say something incredibly idiotic and you have everyone looking in.

But Anwar and Lim Kit Siang are not too far off here. C'mon, you want Muhyiddin to convene Parliament so that you can debate Covid 19 ? Support the poor fellow doing his best in a bad situation. Haven't you guys heard of "substance over form" ? You want to vote him out, and any ruse is good enough ! And you smirk and say this is no ambush ?

Najib must say something, of course. Didn't that "bossku" thing stir things up a bit ? Now he claims "cash is king" is good, after all. He said it in court, no less,  that he's not stupid. If he believes "cash is king" is good for all occassions. 

To go back to China, one wonders, with the world-wide spread of Covid 19, how come the US now is ahead of China, and how come the multi-million cities of Shanghai, Beijing and the rest are not on their knees ? And what about the stories of the cremation urns ? How many have really died in that 1.4-billion country ? 

We may have to have part of the coming Ramadan home-tied. But the 6-week figure seems wise. And the Shariah puts Life and Intellect as 2 of its 5 Maqasids.

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